Arewacin Amurka da Turai: Bambancin Farashin Wutar Lantarki ta Rana – Farashi Mai Tasowa vs. Ci gaba da Faduwar Da Aka Samu

A cikin kwata na uku da na huɗu na 2025, farashin Ƙarfin Rana Yarjejeniyar siyayya (PPAs) da aka sanya hannu a Arewacin Amurka ta karu da kashi 3.2%, inda ta kai matsayi mafi girma na $61.67 a kowace megawatt-awa.

Wannan shi ne ɗaya daga cikin muhimman abubuwan da aka gano daga rahotanni biyu da kamfanin nazarin kasuwa LevelTen Energy ya fitar a makon da ya gabata, wanda ya shafi Makamashin Mai Sabuntawa Kasuwar PPA a Arewacin Amurka da Turai.

Bayanan hasken rana na Arewacin Amurka sun nuna cewa farashin PPA na hasken rana ya karu da kashi 9% tsakanin ƙarshen 2024 da 2025. Duk da haka, daga cikin fasahohi daban-daban da LevelTen ya yi nazari a kansu, farashin PPA na hasken rana ya kasance mafi ƙanƙanta, inda iska ($73.77 a kowace megawatt-awa) da kuma hybrid ($67.70 a kowace megawatt-awa) suka yi matsakaicin farashi mafi girma.

Duk da haka, farashin PPA na hasken rana ya karu da kashi 3.2% kwata-kwata fiye da kwata, wanda ya fi girma fiye da PPA na haɗin gwiwa kuma ya bambanta da raguwar matsakaicin farashin PPA na iska. A kwata na uku, matsakaicin farashin PPA na hasken rana ya kasance $59.77 a kowace megawatt-awa, ma'ana ƙaruwar wata-wata fiye da $1 a kowace megawatt-awa.

Tun daga farkon wa'adin mulkin Shugaba Trump na biyu a farkon shekara, farashin dukkan nau'ikan fasaha guda uku ya nuna ci gaba mai kyau. A farkon shekara, matsakaicin farashin yarjejeniyar sayen wutar lantarki ta iska (PPAs) ya kasance ƙasa da $65/MWh, yarjejeniyar sayen wutar lantarki ta haɗin gwiwa (PPAs) ya ɗan wuce $60/MWh, kuma matsakaicin PPA na hasken rana ya kasance ƙasa da $60/MWh.

"Akwai matsaloli masu yawa a fannin dokoki," in ji LevelTen a cikin nazarinsa kan kasuwar PPA ta Arewacin Amurka. "Rashin tabbas game da binciken harajin Sashe na 232 da ake gudanarwa ya kara farashin ci gaba, yayin da sabbin tsauraran hanyoyin bayar da lasisi na matakin tarayya suka dakatar da ayyukan ci gaba da dama a duk fadin kasar." Kamfanin binciken ya nuna cewa Sashe na 232 da kuma dokar Hukumar Kula da Harkokin Waje (FEOC) sun nuna rudani a masana'antar makamashi mai sabuntawa ta Amurka wanda rashin tabbas na manufofi ya haifar.

Duk da haka, farashin matsakaicin farashin PPA na Arewacin Amurka, wanda ba ya amfani da matsakaicin kasuwa, ya fi ƙanƙanta. Wannan lissafin matsakaicin da ba na kasuwa ba ya ƙunshi duk PPA da aka yi rikodin a Arewacin Amurka amma bai ba da ƙarin nauyi ga yarjejeniyoyin da aka shiga cikin grid na manyan masu gudanar da tsarin (ISOs) kamar ERCOT da CAISO ba.

Ba tare da amfani da matsakaicin farashin kasuwa ba, matsakaicin farashin yarjejeniyar siyan wutar lantarki (PPAs) don wutar lantarki ta iska, ta haɗakar iska, da ta hasken rana ya bambanta da ƙasa da dala ɗaya, a kan $53.85, $53.06, da $53.03 a kowace megawatt-awa, bi da bi. Wannan yana nuna raguwar farashin PPA na hasken rana na biyu a jere na kwata-kwata-kwata.

Farashin PPA na Turai yana Ci gaba da Faɗuwa

A halin yanzu, a cewar rahoton LevelTen na biyu da aka fitar a makon da ya gabata, matsakaicin farashin PPA na makamashin da ake sabuntawa a Turai yana ci gaba da raguwa. Rahoton ya nuna cewa matsakaicin farashin kasuwa na PPA na hasken rana ya kai €57.44 a kowace megawatt-awa ($68.14 a kowace megawatt-awa), adadi mafi girma fiye da na Arewacin Amurka, amma tare da manyan bambance-bambance tsakanin yanayin dogon lokaci da na ɗan gajeren lokaci.

Misali, matsakaicin farashin PPA na hasken rana da aka sanya hannu a Turai ya faɗi daga ɗan ƙasa da €80 a kowace megawatt-awa a ƙarshen 2022 zuwa €57.44 a kowace megawatt-awa, tare da irin wannan raguwar farashi a ɓangarorin wutar lantarki na iska da na haɗaka. Kwanan nan, matsakaicin farashin PPA na hasken rana a Turai ya faɗi daga €58.21 a kowace megawatt-awa a kwata na uku na 2025 zuwa ƙasa da €58 a kowace megawatt-awa a kwata na huɗu. LevelTen ta yi imanin cewa raguwar farashin dogon lokaci yana da tasiri sakamakon jinkirin buƙatar makamashi mai sabuntawa idan aka kwatanta da wadata, yayin da "kasuwannin Turai da yawa ke ci gaba da fuskantar ƙarancin farashin wutar lantarki da mara kyau." Wani rahoto makamancin haka da wani kamfanin bincike, Pexapark, ya fitar a makon da ya gabata, ya bayyana cewa farashin wutar lantarki mara kyau da lalacewar farashi halaye ne na "tsare-tsare da tsari" na kasuwar Turai.

LevelTen ta kuma nuna cewa akwai yiwuwar manyan sauye-sauye ga kayayyakin wutar lantarki da hanyoyin sadarwa na Turai a cikin watanni masu zuwa yayin da Hukumar Tarayyar Turai ke ci gaba da "kunshin hanyoyin sadarwa" (wanda aka gabatar a watan Disamba da ya gabata don inganta kayayyakin haɗin gwiwa a faɗin nahiyar), wanda zai shafi farashin wutar lantarki. Kamfanin nazarin zai shirya wani taron tattaunawa a ƙarshen wannan makon don ƙarin bincike daga rahoton yarjejeniyar siyan wutar lantarki ta Turai na baya-bayan nan.